Vaccine efficacy and SARS CoV 2 control in California and USA during the session 2020 2026: A modeling study (preprint)

Besides maintaining health precautions, vaccination has been the only prevention from SARS-CoV-2, though no clinically proved 100% effective vaccine has been developed till date. At this stage, to withhold the debris of this pandemic, experts need to know the impact of the vaccine efficacy rate's threshold and how long this pandemic may extent with vaccines that have different efficacy rates. In this article, a mathematical model study has been done on the importance of vaccination and vaccine efficiency rate during an ongoing pandemic. We simulated a five compartment mathematical model to analyze the pandemic scenario in both California, and whole U.S. We considered four vaccines, Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson and Johnson, which are being used rigorously to control the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition with two special cases: a vaccine with 100% efficacy rate and no vaccine under use. Both the infection and death rates are very high in California. Our model suggests that the pandemic situation in California will be under control in the last quartile of the year 2023 if frequent vaccination is continued with the Pfizer vaccine. During this time, six waves will happen from the beginning of the immunization where the case fatality and recovery rates will be 1.697% and 98.30%, respectively. However, according to the considered model, this period might be extended to the mid of 2024 when vaccines with lower efficacy rates are used. The more effective a vaccine, the less people suffer from this malign infection. Although specific groups of people get prioritized initially, mass vaccination is needed to control the spread of the disease.

Diversity and genomic determinants of the microbiomes associated with COVID-19 and non-COVID respiratory diseases (preprint)

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly emerging and highly transmissible disease caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Understanding the microbiomes associated with the upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and COVID-19 diseases has clinical interest. We hypothesized that the diversity of microbiome compositions and their genomic features are associated with different pathological conditions of these human respiratory tract diseases (COVID-19 and non-COVID; URTI and COPD). To test this hypothesis, we analyzed 21 whole metagenome sequences (WMS) including eleven COVID-19 (BD = 6 and China = 5), six COPD (UK = 6) and four URTI (USA = 4) samples to unravel the diversity of microbiomes, their genomic features and relevant metabolic functions. The WMS data mapped to 534 bacterial, 60 archaeal and 61 viral genomes with distinct variation in the microbiome composition across the samples (COVID-19>COPD>URTI). Notably, 94.57%, 80.0% and 24.59% bacterial, archaeal and viral genera shared between the COVID-19 and non-COVID samples, respectively, however, the COVID-19 related samples had sole association with 16 viral genera other than SARS-CoV-2. Strain-level virome profiling revealed 660 and 729 strains in COVID-19 and non-COVID sequence data, respectively and of them 34.50% strains shared between the conditions. Functional annotation of metagenomics sequences of thevCOVID-19 and non-COVID groups identified the association of several biochemical pathways related to basic metabolism (amino acid and energy), ABC transporters, membrane transport, replication and repair, clustering-based subsystems, virulence, disease and defense, adhesion, regulation of virulence, programmed cell death, and primary immunodeficiency. We also detected 30 functional gene groups/classes associated with resistance to antibiotics and toxic compounds (RATC) in both COVID-19 and non-COVID microbiomes. Furthermore, a predominant higher abundance of cobalt-zinc-cadmium resistance (CZCR) and multidrug resistance to efflux pumps (MREP) genes were detected in COVID-19 metagenome. The profiles of microbiome diversity and associated microbial genomic features found in both COVID-19 and non-COVID (COPD and URTI) samples might be helpful for developing the microbiome-based diagnostics and therapeutics for COVID-19 and non-COVID respiratory diseases. However, future studies might be carried out to explore the microbiome dynamics and the cross-talk between host and microbiomes employing larger volume of samples from different ethnic groups and geoclimatic conditions.

An engineered decoy receptor for SARS-CoV-2 broadly binds protein S sequence variants (preprint)

The spike S of SARS-CoV-2 recognizes ACE2 on the host cell membrane to initiate entry. Soluble decoy receptors, in which the ACE2 ectodomain is engineered to block S with high affinity, potently neutralize infection and, due to close similarity with the natural receptor, hold out the promise of being broadly active against virus variants without opportunity for escape. Here, we directly test this hypothesis. We find an engineered decoy receptor, sACE22.v2.4, tightly binds S of SARS-associated viruses from humans and bats, despite the ACE2-binding surface being a region of high diversity. Saturation mutagenesis of the receptor-binding domain followed by in vitro selection, with wild type ACE2 and the engineered decoy competing for binding sites, failed to find S mutants that discriminate in favor of the wild type receptor. We conclude that resistance to engineered decoys will be rare and that decoys may be active against future outbreaks of SARS-associated betacoronaviruses.

Host range projection of SARS-CoV-2: South Asia perspective (preprint)

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causing agent of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19), is likely to be originated from bat and transmitted through intermediate hosts. However, the immediate source species of SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been confirmed. Here, we used diversity analysis of the angiotensin I converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) that serves as cellular receptor for SARS-CoV-2 and transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2), which has been proved to be utilized by SARS-CoV-2 for spike protein priming. We also simulated the structure of receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (SARS-CoV-2 S RBD) with the ACE2s to investigate their binding affinity to determine the potential intermediate animal hosts that could spread the SARS-CoV-2 virus to humans in South Asia. We identified cow, buffalo, goat and sheep, which are predominant species in the household farming system in South Asia that can potentially be infected by SARS-CoV-2. All the bird species studied along with rat and mouse were considered less potential to interact with SARS-CoV-2. The interaction interfaces of SARS-CoV-2 S RBD and ACE2 protein complex suggests pangolin as a potential intermediate host in SARS-CoV-2. Our results provide a valuable resource for the identification of potential hosts for SARS-CoV-2 in South Asia and henceforth reduce the opportunity for a future outbreak of COVID-19.

Host transcriptional responses and SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the nasopharyngeal samples of Bangladeshi COVID-19 patients (preprint)

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, fatality and cases of new infections are also increasing at an alarming rate. SARS-CoV-2 follows a highly variable course and it is becoming more evident that individuals immune system has a decisive influence on the progression of the disease. However, the detailed underlying molecular mechanisms of the SARS-CoV-2 mediate disease pathogenesis are largely unknown. Only a few host transcriptional responses in COVID-19 have been reported so far from the Western world, but no such data has been generated from the South-Asian region yet to correlate the conjectured lower fatality around this part of the globe. In this context, we aimed to perform the transcriptomic profiling of the COVID-19 patients from Bangladesh along with the reporting of the SARS-CoV-2 isolates from these patients. Moreover, we performed a comparative analysis to demonstrate how differently the various SARS-CoV-2 infection systems are responding to the viral pathogen. We detected a unique missense mutation at 10329 position of ORF1ab gene, annotated to 3C like proteinase, which is found in 75% of our analyzed isolates; but is very rare globally. Upon the functional enrichment analyses of differentially modulated genes, we detected a similar host induced response reported earlier; this response was mainly mediated by the innate immune system, interferon stimulation, and upregulated cytokine expression etc. in the Bangladeshi patients. Surprisingly, we did not perceive the induction of apoptotic signaling, phagosome formation, antigen presentation and production, hypoxia response within these nasopharyngeal samples. Furthermore, while comparing with the other SARS-CoV-2 infection systems, we spotted that lung cells trigger the more versatile immune and cytokine signaling which was several folds higher compared to our reported nasopharyngeal samples. We also observed that lung cells did not express ACE2 in a very high amount as suspected, however, the nasopharyngeal cells are found overexpressing ACE2. But the amount of DPP4 expression within the nasal samples was significantly lower compared to the other cell types. Surprisingly, we observed that lung cells express a very high amount of integrins compared to the nasopharyngeal samples, which might suggest the putative reasons for an increased amount of viral infections in the lungs. From the network analysis, we got clues on the probable viral modulation for the overexpression of these integrins. Our data will provide valuable insights in developing potential studies to elucidate the roles of ethnicity effect on the viral pathogenesis, and incorporation of further data will enrich the search of an effective therapeutics.

Effect of Lockdown and Isolation to Suppress the COVID-19 in Bangladesh: An Epidemic Compartments Model (preprint)

In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 analytical epidemic framework that combines with isolation and lockdown effect by incorporating five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. The extensive numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensures the social and economic stability.

Pandemic and the Dynamics of SEIR Model: Case COVID-19 (preprint)

Rapidly spreading disease, COVID-19 is classified as the human-to-human transmission-able disease and currently is a pandemic in the Globe. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models for COVID-19 outbreak and it's control measurement; quarantine, hospitalization and the effect of panic and anxiety. In this situation, mathematical models are a important tool to employ an effective strategy in order to fight against this pandemic. We establish the positivity and boundedness of solutions, local and global stability analysis of equilibria to examine its epidemiological relevance. To validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Italy from $15^{th}$ Feb to $13^{th} $ April 2020. In a series of graphical map, we have presented the comparative study to estimate the current scenarios and to predict the control measurement time boundary of the outbreak.

Mathematical Modelling of Social Consciousness to Control the Outbreak of COVID-19 (preprint)

Background: The world, now in an emergency of preventing the drastic spread of COVID-19. After the infection was first reported in December 2019, almost every country did not pay attention to this highly contaminated disease and failed to react swiftly. Now the whole universe is in an vulnerable state, loosing a great loss of lives and facing difficulties in all socio-economic aspects. That is why we have the urge to develop an efficient mathematical model (quarantine) based on social consciousness to control the epidemic. Methods: This is a quarantine mathematical model. The outcome of the system is dependent on social consciousness. We have calculated the awareness level by considering various socio-economic factor of each country. In our model, the parameters are Education Index, GDP per capita, population density, high literacy and stable economy. To maximize the efficiency of the model, it has to be implemented in initial stage. However, strict application of the method in vigorous stage of epidemic will also bring a satisfactory outcome. Results: Higher social consciousness will decrease the number of infected population dramatically while minimal or lower awareness will do a outburst. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, lower the death rate and will ensure social and economic stability.